????????? > ???? > ????

????tPa:???????????? ???????

??: ???????     ??: 2020-09-23 11:55:56
???:? ? ??

???11?5????????????YHAO88.cc????.cc?????????????????????,??????????????????????????,??????????????!????tPa:???????????? ???????

????tPa:???????????? ???????

???? ?????m1xW??????HJ6IY

????

?????????????????????sUT3,???????????cjYM,???????????????A03?3?23????????????????????QE???????????5,??????????????0.5%-0.7%???M2?????22%-23%0n6???2020?9?19?Emcc,LME????6l,850??/?IO,???3?23????????56.7%5h,???27????49H?

??JB8,?????????????????????kkAkQ,NXFD????????+??????O4?????????????Are1E???????????????????JuRrUw,?????????KW3a,????????????OkT,?????fmS???????IfIl???BgM,??????9R3??????MRM,????????????????????????iXj7,?????????????z?

??4k:???????cL5NV,????????????A???y,?????????xj,2020-2022????????????????WkHn,??????????sk,?????????????ck?WBMS????QG,2020?1-6?????????1005??p7,?2019??????0.7%dzM5l,??????????????hJl??????????40%???????????????K,??????????????VmT;????????????????W;??2020~2022??Cobre Panamav?KamoaW6XvL?Timok Upperyoem?Quebrada Blanca????????mF??????tbO,??2020~2022??????????-1.21%t?3.13%7W?2.09%rjG?

??C,??????????????9?????????????48??/?oRMSd,?8???HXTYz;??KSI????Antofagasta??2021???????? TC?60.8??/?vI,?2020??1.2??/?23a4I4,?2012?????4n5????????????d2,??????????????????????pWi,????????????wRKU,??????????sPZ?

??CLNJ:??????nhZ,??????gUX8???????AaEwuH??????????????2OQdI?2020?7?????????+1.6%5??????????????wxP,???????????????????????2020~2021?????1lP,??????????????gM??????????ABt,????????????S5auS?8???????????-3.6%CgSS,?????????-10.8%nK7,?????????dHU??????????,8?????????r7DqT??????7co,8?????????+6.44%qA,????+11.57%GRw??????????????8u???????????Bn?????????????lSr,????????2020?????????????????????????????i4SK,2020~2022????????????307??7?385??Q5j?480??jY5?????25??XQC?31??xCM?38???????AMbW,?????????1.05%FK?1.3%?1.6%x6R?

????PMI????UbPn,????????????1Px,????7nck???8????PMI???53.6OqL4c,????50.9QLj;8???????PMI?51.7K,????QIYJXI????????????bT0Fa,??????????5uN?

????t3:???????????????M72S,???????h9???9?18?fz,??????????23.5??Nmrh,???????29.57??LnF,?????5??????yh?

???????fLLT,?????????????NOdq,??2020~2022???????????-13.68liXNj?-15.4NO?-47.2??D8GZ5????2020?Q4?????????????ja7H,?????????????????????GtH,????????????L,?????????????mZ,???????????????????4Kkn?

??2016??????????0V,??????????????????????KiD34,????????Sv,????????8,????????????????8BrG,????????????C?????????Php?????9Ei?????Hb5????????????????m?

????qCs:1lg)???????vPl;2W0)????????N;3T)?????????Dsz?

??

1.????????????

1.1.???????????Ipj,??????

2020?1?20??3?23?a4U,????????????iH,????????fOy4,??????OHq35??3?13????6?????NfRl,??????????8u,??????19.8%???4371??/?do,?2016?10?????mtXR2?

3?23????????57%5cj,??????B10???????????????????XI7,????????????????????????????kI930u,??rRg??yY2Dc????????????????7KBG,??????5oS1t???2020?9?19?OLe,LME????63vA,850??/?5J,???3?23????????56.7%Z,???27????JXMYE?

1.2.?????????????????????M,???????????

????iT2Ji,3?23???????????????????????QE???????????vSw????????????QD(??????????B)?????f6,??????3?23?????QEkC,???????????1.6%??????????8K8WLk,??0.5%-0.7%???sbpv2,?????R,????????????????????????Xg,?0.5%??1.5%-1.7%???,??g7a5r???????????????aaJXeS,????bbQ?

???????????JI,???????????????????????WH,????????1-5??????????v,M2????????20%?????Y7h,??5-6???????????????N341S???????3??????????????????pdj,?M2????5????????????22%??U0toW,?????????22%-23%???????????????3??-5??????????kXEo,?6?????????gZ?

??????dlP3ow,???????????????????????wEC????????????Pu8Hj(??????????5f)?????lFD,???????????,????????????1.6%-1.7%???0s,???????????????????QE2dJN,?????????????ihAWs8,?????0.7%?????????????????????????????nNN,TZ98aP????????+??????59?????????????dD?

??????????????????5P,?????????????wQSG,????????????CCN0,?????HV???????taPn???Dt8,??????xod???9HG,??WHO????pOWO,??9?9?uS,??????????182?qeMzi,????36?Nr2c,?????146?0g0,?9???????III?bJk??9?18?????????????????YUj,??????11???????????rY,??4???III?????eJzZC???????????????????????YJCzXE,???????????????X,????????????seehQ?????????????????????11????????NqfoN?????,??????????9Vjw,????????????????????????ht,??????????????JA?

??2L95,?????????????????GJ5,??????????????R9C?????dt3,??????7?23??7500????????????AWVoB,??????t??????????3900???YqJ7,????????? 28pTEC(RRFlPeiJ) ????????jV,???????????????nfr,??????????????a?????????????,???????????????2020-22???????rdoun???7500?????????????6000?????1wr6k????????????6Jy,????????????????????????????b??????????????????W6mWk,?????????????iK????????????????????????sYAK,???????????????????Exj?

????FJq0,???????????????4s,???11?????????W???3????2.3?????????WTGo,?????????????????7????TL6,???????????????????????g????????????????????????cthm,?????????????????vgeQ,?????edYt,???8?7?????????Y,NcI?????????????Y9eejhF,???????????eC????????bAOzah,???????????12?y?

9?15?Sw2g,???????????1.5?????????77fV,???????????ECT,??????????0GJo???????????????T???KWZb????n,?????2.2?????????dxE?????3,??????????????M,??????????,????????????????1??????ESCR3,???????????????D,????????sy5K???????????X2fNL,2020???11??????????????3????7dJs?

????OVI,?????????ttdH,???????????????????????????????,???????????11???????Nl,?????????????1Y3W,???????????NZ,????????????xWGn7,???????????py3KI,???????????????M6,???????????????B?

??5FYI,????????????????????????,??????S??????????8?27?Jackson Hole?????????1New Economic Challenges and the FedY5Ws Monetary Policy Review24Vqj?????KD,?????De?????????????YUWOKPC,???????XW???????Du(AITUJ4aY)YfXIO, U9w?????????2%?????obRP???Lb0,???????2%?????pLqG,??????????????????????2%????????CBNSh,??????????ZeLv?npx??wFwI,???????????o,????????????????,??????????????aUk?

????8C4Xm,????9?17?FOMC????cNOc0,???????????????O,?????FED?????????s7Q??????ii????????2021-2022???GDP??VXD,???2020???GDP??2020-2022?PCEnE0X???PCE??NUCr4;?????????1Fd,????????????????2023?i6h,????????2022??????????ALgrE?

????Iz,???????????????????????????????0Tw????????????????,?????????????4hzx,???????????RXw8qK,????????????????????????????????kicd???????????????????????????????XPfb,???????????????S??????????????a6E,???????????hH,????????????tBp5,????????????????????gf,???????????????2YL??????????opKLz?

?????????????6,????2003?????????????????????????????????ZE5,????????2.5%???Fed??????????6kWa,???????Oc,???2.5%??????????lEDP,??????????????????ZUG,??????????????0???????????????1.67%cAC,???????2.5%??????fbv3wG,?????????????wpG,?????????????????3fS8?

?????????????bE,??????????????????????,??????Qgwl?????????????????Q97z,??????BO,?????????????????????mup,??????????????????????????????????????jI?????????????????????????????????????Bwf,?????????????????????????????????U?

????UGt,??????????M4,????????ydW,???????????????mS8Q????Sp,????????????????QOJ,???????TFS7???????????????????????????MI,??????jGEG,????gK??????????????4gqzv6,?????????sD,7?????????is8x,?????????????????????????SLQsj?????Nv8sV,??????????kN9r?????????????gXi,?????????????iAt?????????????dY,????????????

???Bn0,?????????????3-5?????????????Qm,??????????????????????LMIz,?????41%???fyLt?10%?????????????mei6VR????????????7KE,?????50%???xQwKTy?16%??????????????????cN,?????????z7db,??????????l4,???????????Lu58KT?

2.??5s6:2020???????????

2.1.2003~2016???????

2003~2013?cSl:??????????

2003-2008????lte,???2000??/???8000??/??????YFWY,???????????7t,???2008??????????q0,??????3000??/???R,???????????2008?11?cqJw,???????QE,???26ku5,810??/???9Td,600??/?jS,??????????????????51WR4,?????????2008???????dNjt,??2013?????GCQr????????jRP,2009~2013?,????????????100%X2?

2011~2014?H:????????

???????????HUB,2011?87oP,??????????????????da6,???????????82eeT???????????dWDq?2011??????????????wmA,2011~2013???????????5.7%my7v,2013???????????????8.8%MAR???????????????B8hWm,?????2010????9,100??/??????

2014~2016?wVn:????????6f1,?????????

2014~2016???????????DG,????????????U7PY??2014???20???Caseronesd6I?25???ToromochonF8?2015?30???Sentinel??????5~10???????tXhD,2016?30?????Las Bambasm5ld?Buena Vista??25????Cerro Verdejo,??????????????????????EHSiV,2014-2016???????????10%??????????V7,????????nuEY,???????????4???????????????????????iK,?????????????G???????????2013??????A2hp,????????????2015?????Aqq?

2016?????????eV,????????????????4rQhi4,????????bN?2015????????MCj?????????p2h,2016???????????-2.5%jhQU,???????-0.8%T6Jl??????????sUNb,?2016?10?????????gz2,??2017???7Uaq,300????WQ9?

2017~2018?3:??????????

???????5??????k,???2017~2018???????cwRIG0??????????zIVG,??????pL0,??????SXs,???????????Wli,???????????Xkb?

2.2.?????????????

2.2.1.??????2020????????????

??????????cG,2020????53,?????jBAs,??????????????8%XJB???????????1VgF,??????????????J,???????Nzr?????Antaminaw?Cerro Verdefk?Las Bambas?????????5%4rAn?22%?28%l2f23????Los Bronces???????28%U??????????????????rAxi,EscondidaFXv4k?CollahuasiauV?Los Pelambres??????????????????7%OKc?16%?4.5%Vj5?

2020????PWMi,?????????????????Dt????rl,???????5Jh(????9i)??????????ZzY???????VqGEUV????6??????????4jog;??SMM???13????FXVa,????????????4?,?????????WAgF8Y(5%fJE)?????vZtZ(2%YVq)?????1m(19%72)??????AXPg(9%A)6gzmBP,????????????Cobre Panama????XU94l5,??????????????Chapata????58?

???WyixOm(-11%IAcQ)cbY?????amPD(-22%as)N5Rcg?????Yo2hFX(-12%ug)????????????PcmPsu???????????m,???????????????6o5,????????????????????????spxA???Antamina???????????31.9%ty,Antacappay???????????19.3%D7,Las Bambas???????????29.2%wlg,????????????????i,????????????Mutanda??????2????fnt?

??????????????W,?????f1Q,??????????????????????By3??SMM???13????O,?8?????????????Enq???U7l,??????H(-7.8%X30)cZ0???????Ckh(-8.4%P8JI)Whtu?????medC(-13.3%)ryH?????R(-10.6%LKJx)a?????c(-16.2%jpR)qSOZN?????O2Tt(-16.4%XWJC7U)???????

??????????D,?ICSGcEc,2020?1-5?????????????-1.7%VJwx??WBMSE,2020?1-6?????????1005??2PrG,?2019?????0.7%9KhPL,2020?????????????TW2A?

2.2.2.??????????fqgw,????????

???????????snT,????????????40%??3x,??9??2,??y9r?????????????????x?

???????????????hTZTAV,???????7???????S???2020?9?18?Er,??????????44.28??UY2wS,??????????75.64??eClE?

9?11??????????3?18????????????X1J,??9?15???????90?Hnpxfn,????????????0WI4?

????xS,???????????????I10Zk,??????????????Lbl3?9??50oGG1,Codelco??????????????eL??????y,??????????8t,?????QPf??rIaSU,???????????5WZP?

2.2.3.2019-2021?CZ6:?????????????

???????32WX,2019-2021??Cobre PanamaiX1?KamoaEba?Timok Upper???????WGM,???????????uEwai?2020-2023????66???????,?????210??KzYt?

2020?????????????qp7D4,?SMMKxsTPv,?????????????????2020????????64???l7(?19%Ei3)IVKU,??????????OQtM?

3.??Zin:??????????

3.1.1.????????????

???????aJtQ,??????Qtv?????????????????50?pIR,????????????????pu,1990???Kfa6,?????????????p1IR??????????????b,???????????????????????g4,?????????????????????,???????????kpYI,??????????????h?

?????????UWP,??????gMn?????????????VK,?????????????????sl8n??Wood Mackenzie??J,?????????2017~2027?????22%???30%??HlLj?2019????????grasberg?????UGRJ3,????????????tJTn3x;2019?3?tsu,Codelco??????Chuquicamata??????????qOokn,??????,???????????ttAcR????????????????????fZAJ3,??????????????????MQ?

??????????Bso,?????????h,??????????????XLK????????????????26%F9K,????????????fqycx,???4-5???AUa,?????????K,?????????????????????xW?2019?6???Chuquicamata??????????k,???????????4a2C,??????????????????Cu,?????19%YlR,2017??????AVwGT????????????wdiPk,????????,?????????????fA9S??????1t0,?????33%F,???????????R3,??????????????????MtG7Ij????????EH,???????????????Jya;???????????????????qo,?????????4vY2I,????????????u?

3.1.2.90%?????????

????W7,??????????????90?????sk?1990???KQ,???5???90%???8i3ZK,??1993????90%???????5-6??Ys;1998??90%????????1?WTmiF;2001-2003????90%???????2???1F;2015??90%????????5????wYS0w?

2020?3?23????????C1??????90%???z0zW,???????49%vf,???????90%???????????n???????????90%?????YE39,??????????10%???????????YTQjC,?????????Y????FvY,?????????Csg,??????????????d5,????????cg??????????????40????5,???????????????gcS,??????????CsP?

4.??j8A:?????8???fsFy,3?????????

???????????????C,??????????????dOZCd?9???????????48??/?,????1??/?0ZZR4,?3???????????????24??/?DVrWef?7?3?YA,??ErdEm????Antofagasta??2021???????? TC?60.8??/?Ex,?2020??1.2??/?JFi,?2012?????7Mk?

2020?8????????89.4??SuI,??+9.7%3,1-8???????????599.44??,??????3.39%u9;8???????195??NudnF8,??+20.1%3Z?

??????????ob????????????yWT,??????????????????????fsv,????????????U0????????P,2020?3????????????????9,???????????799??HMA8tJ,?????1J,????????????22??jXdS,?????????F?

5.??Yr:??5?????

?????????????5?????p2???9?18?krI,??????????23.5??PEnZ5,???5???niU???9?11?CW,???????29.57??VIkS,?3?6?????61%kfC0aF,???5???C5Q?

6.??dF8:????????

6.1.????????

??????????MIFlA,????????????????g6qm?2020?7?????????+1.6%AIT??????????????RrR,???????????????????????2020~2021?????H,??????????????2MRNj?

?????????f4V,????????????C?8???????????-3.6%dIi,?????????-10.8%Cj,??????qn9,?????????????????Pz,???????????K5?

?????????9t,8?????????b90Hu??????????????v,????????????????????vQ3n,????????????????????QW,8?????????XrXwm,?????,8?????????+6.44%qQ,????+11.57%l?

8???????????ZTTYot?8???????1533??1wRnQ,??+0.5%rR???????3-8???????-4.43%?

6.2.?????????????????????????

?????????????kWoE???????????2?????????????WBU,????????2020???????????????????????JGCFo?

??2019????????????????vh?????28??????24?????????RgKhC,??12????????????????fbJ,??????????VS,????????5000-6000??/?5i0,??????0DA?

??2020?1???????????????cpq,??????????5C,???????????????????CtGg,??????qJ3FXB??1?17??????????????2020???????????q0O:7?1???F0rY9o,????????y9;7?1???wk,???2020??????xKw,?????????Mkf1,???????????????????2P,?????????????fyZA?????3P,?????rl,???????qd936J,????????????????????????????v0,???????????????????????Ulbv8?

?????,2020~2021????????????307??M2S?385??08G?480??p,???????20%dg?25%?25%PAHZ???ICSG???????X,?????????????????dV,????????80????ArH,????????0FjB,??????24.63??Kx3?30.79??alC?38.49???????,?????????1.05%SM?1.3%k?1.6%OJ?

6.3.?????????

?SMM??????jGMx,8????????????72.66%4G,????3.50????56O,????2.79????dwrKD8???9??????????71.64%vDbvp,????1.02????e0,????5.16????oz2y7?8????????????2w?

?SMMfR,6??????????????65.89%05,????3.42????1mj,????0.05????oas???6??????????????Q,???????????????JPqO0,???????????5?OqB,????5G?????SKduD?

?SMM??NFu3fQ,8???????????97.02%qr7Be,????4.60????,????5.86????WSxW?8?????????S5s,?????????dk?????????????r,??????????????aS0dGx???Q6cj,8?????????????????????m,??????????????????????????CzK,??????????????8?????????????LAbJ?

7.8?????????

????????????????rmO,5??????????????Z?7????????PMI??51.1YefxQz,???????Q???8????PMI???53.6e30w,????50.9hqMQ;8???????PMI?51.7Zr2u8,??????o;7????????????PMI?50.3OU,???????xi,???????????5R6,????????mVe,??????????5?

8?????????0stX64,?????????aQR??????????jL, ??8?????????137.10?unNNmk,????????135?zdT41,??????????????173.4?H2M???8??????????????10%??shN,????8.4%gny,??????9.80%7e;8???????4.70%N,?????0.2????wU,?????4.80%8QG?

8.2020~2022?????Bex:???????

???????LDKI,??????????????5XDX,??2020~2022???????????11JLbnt?15.4OLY3t?-8.7??CLy3;?????????????BEkwr,??2020~2022???????????-13.6PB?-15.4aAF?-47.2??PU1l?

2020~2022???????????rH,???????????,?????????????y,?????????,??????????WI?

9.???????????????x,???????

???2020?Q4?????????????icuAD,?????????????????????Tu6z3,????????????g5,?????????????fWO,???????????????????v?

????A,??2016??????????khA6N,??????????????????????YwmYIs,????????mivMn,????????lNaA,????????????????CMk,?????????????????2?????????czaI?????j????g8W5????????????????????

9.1.????kjk:????????2020?10???Tww4,??????

?????5quwD,?????????2020?10???nJb??????i,???????3LiYZR,?????????????13??K,??????????????t??????????58%??lasXM,???rHg,?????????????1.22?????7.54??9sa?????????2.5???jN(100%??fwPtF)DCkc,???????????????3.72?????10.04??OJ40,????????170%1bt?

????uR:??Fg??-AGwm??4,6?????13.5?FZcm??????5q2V,2020~2022?Sz,???4.8?/?j?5.2?/?oG8?5.5?/?????1h3K;??????????8.78?YI?15.2?DokTNN?21.3?2WJ,??EPS???0.37?LHn?0.64?AJx?0.90?Y?????????????????CE,????????dKgrl2,???????????????pE8JR,???????????????3WiB,??????????VQx2U,??????????p;????????????????bPe,2020-2022??????????????????DXn,???????????170%?????39dj,????????????????,??????????????????OK??-AVBP??WB9n,6?????13.5?oeW,???2022??????15.0xup?

9.2.????Qs0:??????umIX,????????????

2020??????????????????sxA??????f9n,2020???????????,??1250??/????u9l??????fgr,2020??????????????????????E,??130?????????????NPs?

?????????????Yy,???????????????3W,???????xw?????2020?6??svLdF,???????11.33??ReGlU,????475.05??mp0,?????0.42%qNUgb??????????????????????????Zj,?????????????RDx??????rvb,??????????????????????PN,??????????????u5jc???8okNB????????uNmYq?

????Enc:??u??-AkTL2??w0n,6?????18.3?exm?????2020-2022???4.8?9DH?5.2?lvMmH?5.5??????c,??????????6.94?cUqug?10.33?3HPw,13.25?,??EPS???0.41?huIa?0.61?bcP?0.78?7Jsu??????????????hrt,????????i????????f7Dk???????????2aJ,????????bkv,?????????????????,??????????shY?????kq3d??-AqOnI??oKFKq,6?????18.3?u,???2021?30x?????BRtN?

9.3.????s:??????5qFM1E,?????????

??????????????????yL,??????????6Cl5I???cjx???Ojf50M???sFMkg,?????FEbu?????????????????????Co????????????16?S0k,???????112.01?ldVJ????????iFei,????????50?Ppy4???700????Gy????25?????130?????0T?

????6x9TQO:??XJ??-ANxs??5MG,6?????20.75?QTx7V?????FQM????????????BYp2F,??2020-2022??4.8?/?K?5.2?/?M?5.5?/????????SGP7lT,??????????20.1??s9H?28.7???33.4??BtJ,??EPS???0.58?PD3Ny?0.83?EzV?0.97?xU7??????????????n????????A?????kGT,??????d52z,????????hk,????????????kJ????????Lv0gP???JU2,????????QPz0???FQM??????cTQ,????????9UFFrG,????6?????20.75?,???2021?25x?????m?

9.4.???hjK:????????????,???????????

GPv9w??+??T6zEf??????O,????????????nAoo,???????????ydD?2019?????????????8,???????????90%??Z0cMZ????Qn3hKo,??2019?5?23??????????????????????90%???7M,??????2133??UCz,??32.65%n,????80??/?m8N,??????15?aSOS,?????6.8?G,??????6000??2O????????????????O9om?????????????????DR?????????Dikulushi??90%??UxuS????sUvGr,??8?26?????AMC????????Dikulushi ??????????yn,?????PE606??Dikulushi????????,?????113.1??h9CI81,?????6.31%ng,????? 145g/tNwO,?????8??2s,???192?FkTs,????2021???zDG,???1??????uW4??????? Dikulushi ??????????MEFG?????U2TxT????????????????Cordoba??????19.9%??aaRy????C,2019?11?L71,?????Cordoba??19.9%?????pJz,??2020?1?17???Upeux?Cordoba???????????San Matias??????3JIS,??53???OH7,30???0ap,282????gF9B????????????5t,??????????????????Q,???????????5600???E9l?

??T8WYz??-Av7ZcS1????1,6??????17.4?iV????????????????c3t,??????????y7,??????2020-2022???????????WE,???3.6dCR?5.2?6.3??1,??PE???18.5x5LRM2?12.8x?10.5xzT9u????????????Wv3,???????????????kv,?????????f50C4,??????????C40,??2021?20xPE47u1,6?????17.4??

????oUn?????2,??????APP

????5CZKB:???

????

????

????:????? ?ICP?05070829 ?????4400000131
??:????? ??:???????????? ??:?????
????1024768??? IE7.0???????